Analysing the Vulnerability of World Heritage to Climate Change; a case study of Bru na Boinne, Ireland.

CATHY DALY
Brandenburg University of Technology, Cottbus, Germany

This paper will present the results of research undertaken for a MA thesis in World Heritage Studies at the University of Brandenburg in 2008. It will show how the impacts of climate change on cultural heritage can be assessed using vulnerability analysis. Unlike traditional risk assessment vulnerability analysis takes a holistic, system-based approach ideally suited to the study of the complex interactions of climate change effects and heritage values. The advantages of vulnerability analysis will be demonstrated through a case study on the World Heritage site of Bru na Boinne.

The vulnerability model for coupled human-environment systems developed by Schroter was adapted by the author to produce a tool that can be applied by heritage professionals. Stakeholder interviews in addition to site visits and literature research provided the data for analysis. Estimations were made of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity for each heritage value, to each predicted climate change. Quantifiable indicators were gathered for some of the predicted impacts. These values were then fed into the author's model and the 'measure of vulnerability' of heritage values to each climate change impact was calculated. The gathering of suitable indicators for quantifying the elements of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and resilience) proved one of the hardest parts of the research. The assessment produced a preliminary measure of the vulnerability of key heritage values at the site for climatic conditions predicted over the next century. Using this as a baseline, decision makers can go forward to prioritize areas of response. It is suggested that the vulnerability model used might be developed to facilitate assessments of other sites.